• Iran wants to make a deal said Trump but he’s not satisfied with it on Friday
• Iran’s suggestions include setting one month deadline on talks regarding the opening of the strait and ending the US blockade and the fight against Lebanon
• Once the pact is reached, another month of discussions would begin on the Iran;s nuclear program
• On Sunday, Iran said it received reply from the US but no details are yet available
• Trump further said on a human basis we would rather not “blast the hell out of them and fiish them forever” and try to work on deal instead
• Iran’s parliament set to approve a law on which vessels will be allowed to pass through the strait.
• Oil prices eased on Friday after previous the week touching all highs. Brent crude settled at $108 while WTI settled at $102 after reports that Tehran has proposed a new proposal to US
• Solid corporate earnings led stocks to fifth consecutive highs
• Iran has activated air defenses now around it’s capital on thursday
• US is looking for allies to form a joint naval force to secure the Strait.

• US Stocks on their way to their best month as US growth accelerated at the start of the year mainly by massive AI driven investments
• Treasuries now rebounding and Brent down to $114 after reaching $125 earlier
• Inflation adjusted GDP increased an annualized 2% in first quarter
• Iran’s leader gave a statement on Thursday saying it will not give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies. Further he said “Iran will secure and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of the waterway”
• US Military is set to brief Trump on options. Centcom (which controls American military in Middle East) has prepared a short wave of attacks to break the deadlock
• US Military now considering the use of hypersonic missiles against Iran
• Mag Seven’s earnings will impact how equities react for the next couple of weeks

• Asian markets ended red for the day. Crude now at $111 a barrel (June contracts) due to supply flow disruptions after the proposal to reopen the strait was met with skepticism by Donald Trump
• Trump has threatened to resume bombing Iran if negotiations are fruitless, though there is a growing sentiment that Trump aims to avoid restarting the bombing
• OpenAI missed targets and thus is adding on to the bleeding US markets
• Gas prices in the US now have reached another wartime high.

• Asian stocks advance on news that Iran has given US a new proposal to open the strait and postpone nuclear negotiations
• Crude now above $100 depicting a whole other side of the story
• It’s unclear whether the US wants to explore the proposal
• US futures and Europe futures however stay flat as of now as markets are not sure if it’s a positive news yet considering trump had declined the deal offered on the weekend and visit to Islamabad failed
• US wants to close the nuclear program of Iran and probably won’t agree to the deal of opening strait and postponing nuclear negotiations. Trump’s reply to press is something to keep a watch on

• U.S. equities closed higher on Friday on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal with talks expected over the weekend in Pakistan
• Those expectations appear to have faded after Saturday efforts showed little visible progress
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Islamabad and met Pakistani leadership but left before the U.S. delegation was due to depart
• President Trump said he cancelled the U.S. representatives trip calling it too much travel and unnecessary work.
• Trump also claimed Iran sent a significantly improved proposal shortly after, involving no nuclear weapons and broader concessions, though no formal confirmation has emerged.
• Tehran continues to insist that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must end before meaningful talks resume.
• Around 37 vessels have reportedly been redirected or stopped due to the blockade and shipping restrictions.
• U.S. energy exports have hit record levels, helping offset some supply pressure and strengthening Washington’s leverage.
• Israel-Lebanon tensions remain active after renewed strike orders against Hezbollah targets despite the earlier ceasefire extension narrative.
• Reports of an attempted attack targeting President Trump introduced an additional political risk layer raising questions around leadership security and potential market sensitivity if confirmed.

• US equity was green overnight, Asian markets followed tracking US stocks overnight but are now falling reversing the earlier gains for the day. US equity futures fell as well post Brent rising as much as 4.2% above $106 a barrel
• Tensions remain high as US and Iran have both blocked the waterway during an extended ceasefire. Tehran said it had no interest in negotiations for now. Iran’s gunboats fired on commercial ships on strait on Wednesday.
• Clearing mines deployed in the strait could take up to six months said Washington post citing a military assessment shared at Classified committee hearing
• Increasing risk of war worsening by attacks

• VP JD Vance was supposed to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday but Iran refused to attend as expected due to unreasonable US demands
• Stocks and markets dipped lower as no negotiations were conducted in Pakistan and over Kevin Warsh’s new statement over Fed.
• US Stock futures however closed up higher up on the day as President Donald Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran but the blockade stays. Asian markets remain flat with MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipping 0.6% as investors are confused about how long the conflict may continue
• Gold and silver gained 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. WTI fell 0.3% to $89.36 a barrel. Dollar has dipped.

What this means

• Equity markets may continue to rise/ stay flat due to extension of ceasefire as global markets usually seem to be a bit disconnected from geopolitical reality as indicated by the US Stock futures. Exercise caution however as US markets were negative during the trading hours as well as Asian markets
• However the cracks in the negotiations between two countries with neither willing to budge will mean extreme volatility and markets swinging its momentum at every statement made and every development.
• Oil still remains a prospective investment until negotiations are made which seem to unlikely at the moment due to US demand to handover the nuclear dust and Iran’s refusal to do so. It’s a matter of who backs out first in this war over draining resources over time.
• Semiconductor industry keeps rising due to AI boom
• Airlines have started to feel the pressure.

• Ceasefire to expire on Wednesday evening Washington time. Trump said he likely won’t extend ceasefire and intends to close the deal with Iran saying we have all the time in the world and don’t need to rush into a bad deal
• Blockade continues, Iran continues to keep the strait closed
• Earlier Tehran hesitated to talk with US, but as per latest news Iran is also sending a team to Pakistan. VP JD Vance with team is going to Pakistan to continue negotiations either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
• The negotiations signal two sides are continuing to work on a deal to end the war.
• Trump has demanded Iran to handover the stock of enriched uranium. Tehran however has declined. This is a key matter for the negotiations to be held.
• A brief rise in oil prices, increase in treasuries and dollar was seen on monday, before cooling down a bit on tuesday as Asian markets start. Brent now at $91.88 down 0.6% over hopeful negotiations in pakistan. WTI fell 1.4% now trading at $88.40 a barrel
• Asian markets are up as of today. Global stock rally continues until further development over the negotiations or any unsual activity in the strait.

• Iran has reimposed restrictions on vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that any approach toward the strait could be treated as cooperation with an “enemy,” following the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade. This signals a clear shift back toward confrontation after the brief reopening narrative.
• The U.S. military is reportedly preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and potentially seize commercial vessels as part of efforts to pressure Iran into reopening the waterway.
• Reports from the strait indicate gunfire, with at least nine tankers making U-turns on Saturday, while around twelve commercial ships were able to pass earlier in the day.Iran’s foreign ministry has rejected the transfer of uranium stockpiles, calling them “sacred to Iran’s soil” directly contradicting earlier U.S. statements. This is what the negotiations were based on.
• President Trump had earlier stated that the U.S. would recover Iran’s uranium stockpiles, but Iran’s response suggests negotiations may be stalling or breaking down.
• The U.S. has also signaled that the ceasefire may not be extended, with Trump warning that military action could resume if conditions are not met (threats of bombing and continuing the blockade)
• A proposal involving the release of ~$20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for enriched uranium has reportedly been discussed, but Trump has publicly rejected the idea.
• At the same time, signs are emerging that the Lebanon ceasefire may not hold, adding another layer of instability to the situation.
• President Trump said his envoy Steve Witkoff is travelling to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday and the talks may last till Wednesday

What This Means

• The situation has shifted back from de-escalation to conditional conflict within a very short time frame.
• Safe passage through Hormuz remains inconsistent and shipping behavior reflects that uncertainty.
• Negotiations appear fragile, with key disagreements particularly around uranium still unresolved.

What to Watch before Monday

• Whether shipping disruptions intensify or stabilize
• Any confirmation or breakdown in nuclear-related negotiation
• Whether the ceasefire holds or collapses
• Talks with Iran on tuesday will decide where the war stands at

• Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open for traffic (civilian ships only) via a post from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
• It was followed by statement from President Donald Trump saying it was open and ready for full passage.
• Talks likely to take place in Islamabad on Sunday
• Blockade stays in full effect until the transaction is done says President Donald Trump
• Confidence will return if safe passage is maintained without incident over the coming days.
• Passage is possible only with coordination with the IRGC navy
• Iran has agreed to never close the Hormuz strait again. Hormuz will no longer be used as a weapon said Trump. This is not confirmed by Iran.
• Brent crude the global oil benchmark is now trading around $89 a barrel. WTI crude fell 12% to about $81.30 a barrel the most since Apr 8,2026.
• S&P index up by 1.3%. Energy stocks are fallling, erasing their gains from war with Iran.
• Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program not for years but indefinitely. Iran is yet to confirm this on media
• President Donald Trump said Iran is removing the mines from strait of Hormuz with the help of USA.
• Yields fell seven basis point due to the optimism in the middle east peace deal.
• Some on the wall street has suggested investors to exercise caution and wait for a full deal and other details to emerge.
• Geopolitical events may lead to central bank gold buying raising gold prices, as they shift away from the US dollar
• Most of the ship owners that spoke to the press anonymously, said that Iran’s statement lacked detail and they’ll wait to see how it works out and if the route is really safe and fully open.
• Iran made no comment over the payment of toll today.
  
  

• Investors are increasingly positioning for a potential US Iran agreement, but there is still no clarity on timing and expectations remain split.
• U.S. equities and most global markets briefly continue to trade near record highs which suggests markets are still pricing AI and earnings strength rather than supply disruption, while IMF is revising it’s growth outlook to the downside
• Brent crude (Global Oil Indicator) has moved back toward the $100 per barrel mark rising roughly 4–5%, while WTI (US oil indicator) remains elevated around $93–94. Dated brent is being traded at $116 a barrel.
  Oil hasn’t followed equities into comfort.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.31%, a three-basis point move indicating a modest but noticeable increase in risk premium.
• Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned about vulnerabilities in the $31 trillion U.S. debt market pointing toward potential stress in bond markets indicating a possible bond market meltdown.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the war could end in “three days or three months,” while also stating that it will end.
• President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but neither side has confirmed it, and there was no mention of Hezbollah. This makes it really hard to treat is a real deescalation.
• President Trump said that he expects not to extend the two-week ceasefire that ends on Tuesday to make a deal with Iran (possibly over the weekend). He said he expects a deal soon and a good one saying that Iran will provide free oil to the US and agree to his demands. They are considering two weeks extension though said a person familiar with the matter.
• Meanwhile, European and Gulf leaders are pointing to timelines closer to six months. This is a mismatch in expectations.
• Reports suggest the U.S. is pushing for a long-term suspension of Iran’s nuclear program (20 years), while Iran is offering a shorter timeline (5 years). No formal agreement has been confirmed.
• Claims that Iran may hand over uranium stockpiles (441 kgs of uranium as per data from June’2025) remain unverified with Tehran not publicly confirming these concessions. That gap between claims and confirmation is where credibility is being questioned.
• At the same time, the U.S. is increasing troop presence in the region to pressure Iran. This isn’t de-escalation. It’s negotiation under pressure.
  
  

• Oil prices remain more than 30–35% higher than pre-conflict levels, with dated Brent trading (physical oil) around $116, way above futures (June paper market) at around $100. That already tells you the system hasn’t normalized.
  Reports of physical oil being bought at $200 a barrel are making it to the news. 100% premium is being paid in Asian markets to get physical delivery of the oil in immediate short term
• The gap between physical prices and futures remains wide.
  Physical is tight today. Futures are betting it won’t stay that way by June.
• This isn’t a supply collapse. It’s a delivery problem.
• Shipping continues to reflect that stress:
  • At least 14 vessels have turned away in recent days
  • Routes are being avoided rather than the alternative of going through the US Naval blockade
• The U.S. naval presence and blockade dynamics are increasingly shaping flows, with Iran viewing prolonged restrictions as a potential breach of ceasefire conditions. Which means even partial reopening doesn’t guarantee normal flows.
• Buyers are shifting toward U.S. crude as a replacement for Middle Eastern supply. That shift is happening faster than expected.
• Mars crude is now trading more than $15 above WTI.
  Replacement barrels exist just not cheaply.
• Jet fuel prices have surged sharply, particularly in Asia where increases of roughly 70–80% have been observed.
• Airlines are already adjusting:
  • cutting routes
  • raising fees
  • reducing capacity
• European carriers are now requesting approval to use Jet A fuel imports. Europe supposedly is facing severe shortage of jet fuel.
  

If you had to pick one market that’s telling the truth right now – it’s oil.

• The IMF has downgraded global growth to approximately 2.5%, down from around 3.3% prior to the conflict.
  That’s not a minor revision. This has big impact for the future
• The World Bank has indicated that even under stable conditions, recovery will take time due to supply disruptions stating recovery isn’t just about stopping the shock it’s about rebuilding flows
• Fertilizer exports are being restricted by major producers such as China and the U.S.
  That doesn’t show up immediately but it tends to show up later, through food prices
• Governments, including the UK, are already preparing for potential food shortages.
• LNG infrastructure remains a longer-term issue, with some facilities expected to take up to two years to recover.
  Which means even a resolution doesn’t immediately normalize supply.
  
• This isn’t just an energy story anymore.
  It’s starting to move through the system.